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Prediction for CME (2025-12-06T19:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-06T19:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43303/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NNE in SOHO LASCO C2. The CME is also seen in GOES CCOR-1 and STEREO A COR2. This CME is most likely associated with an M1.1 flare from AR 14299 that peaked at 2025-12-06T19:21Z. The flare an accompanying eruption can be seen across GOES wavelengths but is best seen in GOES SUVI 304 and GOES SUVI 131. A nearby filament to the NE of the AR can be seen erupting, best seen in GOES SUVI 195/304. The eruption is also visible from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T07:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-09T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Expected arrival time: 2025-12-09T03:00:00Z

    Arrival time uncertainty: 12


    Estimated peak K: 7

    Peak K uncertainty: 1


    Probability of arrival: 90


    CME start time: 2025-12-06T19:24:00Z
Lead Time: 39.50 hour(s)
Difference: 4.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-07T16:25Z
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